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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Andrew Craig won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1361

Elo1355

Rafael NatalvsAndrew CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · Wednesday, July 11, 2012San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Andrew Craig won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:52

Model Prediction: Andrew Craig wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Andrew Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrew Craig at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andrew Craig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Natal

Red Corner

Andrew Craig

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1361

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael NatalL3 streak

oldest →

vs Uriah Hall · May 15

KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17

latest

Andrew CraigL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ronny Markes · Jan 13

vs Chris Leben · Jul 13

SUBvs Luke Barnatt · Oct 13

vs Cezar Ferreira · Jun 14

KOvs Lyman Good · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael NatalMetricAndrew Craig

3.10

Strikes / min

2.39

2.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

57%

Strike defense

50%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

0.53

77%

Takedown defense

72%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael NatalAndrew Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Natal(10 fights)Andrew Craig(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.1|Blue -6.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +27.0|Blue -27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael NatalTargetAndrew Craig

By target zone

60% acc · 64%

Head

17% acc · 43%

71% acc · 14%

Body

67% acc · 9%

94% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 48%

By position

60% acc · 67%

Distance

30% acc · 91%

92% acc · 15%

Clinch

0% acc

81% acc · 18%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Natal rounds

even

Andrew Craig rounds

Round 1Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns2

Control1:30

Knockdowns2

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 109

Sig Strikes

23 / 72

67%

Sig Str %

32.5%

79 / 115

Total Strikes

30 / 80

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:30

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andrew Craig	10 / 41	12 / 43	0 / 0
1	Rafael Natal	29 / 42	29 / 42	0 / 1
2	Andrew Craig	13 / 31	18 / 37	0 / 1
2	Rafael Natal	44 / 67	50 / 73	2 / 4

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Andrew Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights7