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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Mauricio Ruffy won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1509
Rafael Fiziev editorial illustration
Elo1553

Rafael FizievvsMauricio RuffyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · Saturday, January 31, 2026Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Mauricio Ruffy won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:30

Style matchupRafael Fiziev: Pressure fightervsMauricio Ruffy: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Mauricio Ruffy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Ruffy at +106 American odds

+$106 profit

$206 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mauricio Ruffy is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Rafael Fiziev has lost 60% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (52.9%).
  • Mauricio Ruffy has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Fiziev
Red Corner
VS
Mauricio Ruffy
Blue Corner
-124
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+106
(49%)
1509
Elo
1553
33
Age
30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael FizievW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 23
L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23
L
vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25
W
KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 26
latest
Mauricio Ruffy
oldest →
W
KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · May 24
W
vs James Llontop · Nov 24
W
KOvs King Green · Mar 25
L
SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 25
W
KOvs Michael Chandler · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael FizievMetricMauricio Ruffy
4.71
Strikes / min
4.19
4.84
Strikes absorbed / min
4.09
49%
Strike defense
58%
0.83
TDs / 15 min
0.00
90%
Takedown defense
85%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1566 vs 1533Strikes4.7 vs 4.2Takedowns0.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs 0.2
Rafael FizievMauricio Ruffy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701495152015451570← oldermost recent →
Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)Mauricio Ruffy(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -43.8|Blue +43.8
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael FizievTargetMauricio Ruffy

By target zone

9
29% acc · 25%
Head
45
58% acc · 82%
15
79% acc · 42%
Body
4
100% acc · 7%
12
75% acc · 33%
Leg
6
86% acc · 11%

By position

34
53% acc · 94%
Distance
42
64% acc · 76%
2
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 2%
0
Ground
12
60% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rafael Fiziev rounds
0
even
2
Mauricio Ruffy rounds
Round 1Mauricio Ruffy edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:25Control
Round 2Mauricio Ruffy edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:20Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
36 / 66
Sig Strikes
55 / 88
54%
Sig Str %
62.5%
37 / 67
Total Strikes
60 / 93
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:45

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mauricio Ruffy18 / 2821 / 310 / 00
1Rafael Fiziev16 / 3317 / 340 / 00
2Mauricio Ruffy37 / 6039 / 620 / 00
2Rafael Fiziev20 / 3320 / 330 / 10

Rafael Fiziev

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights13

Mauricio Ruffy

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5