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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Mateusz Gamrot won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1509

Elo1525

Rafael FizievvsMateusz GamrotUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Saturday, September 23, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mateusz Gamrot won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:03

Style matchupRafael Fiziev: Pressure fightervsMateusz Gamrot: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Mateusz Gamrot wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mateusz Gamrot at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mateusz Gamrot has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Fiziev

Red Corner

Mateusz Gamrot

Blue Corner

-142

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1509

Elo

1525

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Fiziev

oldest →

vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 23

vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26

KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 26

latest

Mateusz Gamrot

oldest →

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Mar 24

vs Dan Hooker · Aug 24

vs Ludovit Klein · May 25

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 25

SUBvs Esteban Ribovics · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael FizievMetricMateusz Gamrot

4.71

Strikes / min

3.21

4.84

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

49%

Strike defense

60%

0.83

TDs / 15 min

5.22

90%

Takedown defense

83%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael FizievMateusz Gamrot

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)Mateusz Gamrot(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.3|Blue +15.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael FizievTargetMateusz Gamrot

By target zone

29% acc · 22%

Head

35% acc · 69%

75% acc · 67%

Body

40% acc · 13%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

75% acc · 19%

By position

56% acc · 100%

Distance

37% acc · 81%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

50% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Fiziev rounds

even

Mateusz Gamrot rounds

Round 1Rafael Fiziev edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 32

Sig Strikes

16 / 40

49.5%

Sig Str %

50.5%

19 / 34

Total Strikes

17 / 42

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mateusz Gamrot	12 / 34	12 / 35	0 / 3
1	Rafael Fiziev	16 / 27	16 / 28	0 / 0
2	Mateusz Gamrot	4 / 6	5 / 7	1 / 3
2	Rafael Fiziev	2 / 5	3 / 6	0 / 0

Rafael Fiziev

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights13

Mateusz Gamrot

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12