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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Rafael Fiziev won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1509

Elo1514

Rafael FizievvsManuel TorresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Saturday, June 27, 2026Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Rafael Fiziev won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:15

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Manuel Torres

Style matchupRafael Fiziev: Pressure fightervsManuel Torres: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Manuel Torres wins(69.1%)

Actual result: Rafael Fiziev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Fiziev is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Manuel Torres has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Manuel Torres is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Rafael Fiziev has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Fiziev

Red Corner

Manuel Torres

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1509

Elo

1514

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Fiziev

oldest →

vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 23

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23

vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26

latest

Manuel TorresW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nikolas Motta · Jun 23

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Feb 24

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Sep 24

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 25

KOvs Grant Dawson · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael FizievMetricManuel Torres

4.71

Strikes / min

7.29

4.84

Strikes absorbed / min

4.08

49%

Strike defense

54%

0.83

TDs / 15 min

1.72

90%

Takedown defense

90%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 3.34 — meaningful gap+3.21

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)Manuel Torres(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.4|Blue +4.4

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael FizievTargetManuel Torres

By target zone

62% acc · 52%

Head

36% acc · 73%

50% acc · 8%

Body

80% acc · 18%

71% acc · 40%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

59% acc · 64%

Distance

42% acc · 91%

60% acc · 12%

Clinch

50% acc · 9%

86% acc · 24%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Fiziev rounds

even

Manuel Torres rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control0:36

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Rafael Fiziev edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 39

Sig Strikes

22 / 52

65.5%

Sig Str %

70.5%

28 / 43

Total Strikes

26 / 56

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Manuel Torres	21 / 51	25 / 55	0 / 0
1	Rafael Fiziev	15 / 25	18 / 29	2 / 2
2	Manuel Torres	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0
2	Rafael Fiziev	10 / 14	10 / 14	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

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Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 36% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Rafael Fiziev

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights13

Manuel Torres

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7