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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Fiziev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1509

Elo1502

Rafael FizievvsIgnacio BahamondesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, June 21, 2025Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Rafael Fiziev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRafael Fiziev: Pressure fightervsIgnacio Bahamondes: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Ignacio Bahamondes wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Rafael Fiziev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ignacio Bahamondes at -144 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ignacio Bahamondes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rafael Fiziev has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Rafael Fiziev has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (52.9%).
Ignacio Bahamondes has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Fiziev

Red Corner

Ignacio Bahamondes

Blue Corner

+124

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-144

(59%)

1509

Elo

1502

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'3"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Fiziev

oldest →

vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 23

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23

vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26

KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 26

latest

Ignacio Bahamondes

oldest →

vs Ludovit Klein · Aug 23

KOvs Christos Giagos · Apr 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Sep 24

SUBvs Jalin Turner · Mar 25

vs Tofiq Musayev · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael FizievMetricIgnacio Bahamondes

4.71

Strikes / min

5.99

4.84

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

49%

Strike defense

55%

0.83

TDs / 15 min

0.00

90%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 2.05 — meaningful gap+1.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael FizievIgnacio Bahamondes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)Ignacio Bahamondes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.6|Blue -7.6

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael FizievTargetIgnacio Bahamondes

By target zone

43% acc · 50%

Head

21% acc · 46%

74% acc · 40%

Body

76% acc · 26%

86% acc · 10%

Leg

64% acc · 28%

By position

54% acc · 84%

Distance

34% acc · 94%

71% acc · 8%

Clinch

38% acc · 6%

50% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Fiziev rounds

even

Ignacio Bahamondes rounds

Round 1Rafael Fiziev edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control0:55

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 3Rafael Fiziev edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns2

Control0:48

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 113

Sig Strikes

50 / 147

57%

Sig Str %

34%

87 / 141

Total Strikes

62 / 165

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:43

Ctrl Time

1:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ignacio Bahamondes	13 / 46	13 / 46	0 / 0
1	Rafael Fiziev	17 / 25	17 / 25	0 / 0
2	Ignacio Bahamondes	20 / 44	23 / 49	0 / 1
2	Rafael Fiziev	15 / 28	28 / 41	2 / 2
3	Ignacio Bahamondes	17 / 57	26 / 70	0 / 1
3	Rafael Fiziev	30 / 60	42 / 75	2 / 2

Rafael Fiziev

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights13

Ignacio Bahamondes

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10