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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Patrick Cummins won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1356

Elo1373

Rafael FeijaovsPatrick CumminsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · Saturday, August 1, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Patrick Cummins won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:45

Model Prediction: Patrick Cummins wins(83.2%)

Actual result: Patrick Cummins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Cummins at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rafael Feijao is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Patrick Cummins has lost 71% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Feijao

Red Corner

Patrick Cummins

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1356

Elo

1373

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael FeijaoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Silva · Jun 13

KOvs Igor Pokrajac · Nov 13

DECvs Ryan Bader · Jun 14

DECvs Ovince Saint Preux · Feb 16

latest

Patrick CumminsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17

vs Gian Villante · Jul 17

vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18

KOvs Ed Herman · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael FeijaoMetricPatrick Cummins

—

Strikes / min

4.26

—

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

—

Strike defense

55%

—

TDs / 15 min

4.49

—

Takedown defense

28%

—

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael FeijaoPatrick Cummins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Feijao(5 fights)Patrick Cummins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.6|Blue +16.6

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +308.0|Blue -308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Rafael Feijao

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2

Patrick Cummins

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights13