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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Tony Ferguson won · U-DEC R5

Elo1491

Elo1485

Rafael Dos AnjosvsTony FergusonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · Saturday, November 5, 2016Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
Tony Ferguson has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos

Red Corner

Tony Ferguson

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1491

Elo

1485

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricTony Ferguson

3.48

Strikes / min

4.91

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

4.37

60%

Strike defense

55%

1.95

TDs / 15 min

0.39

54%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael Dos AnjosTony Ferguson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Tony Ferguson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.5|Blue -5.5

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetTony Ferguson

By target zone

38% acc · 69%

Head

126

40% acc · 63%

55% acc · 15%

Body

67% acc · 14%

95% acc · 16%

Leg

96% acc · 23%

By position

119

44% acc · 98%

Distance

196

49% acc · 98%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

75% acc · 2%

25% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

even

Tony Ferguson rounds

Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:29

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

50Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:01

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

121 / 276

Sig Strikes

199 / 401

44.4%

Sig Str %

48.8%

126 / 281

Total Strikes

200 / 402

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tony Ferguson	22 / 62	22 / 62	0 / 0
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	25 / 49	30 / 54	0 / 1
2	Tony Ferguson	50 / 100	51 / 101	0 / 0
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	19 / 65	19 / 65	0 / 1
3	Tony Ferguson	44 / 81	44 / 81	0 / 0
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	30 / 61	30 / 61	0 / 1
4	Rafael Dos Anjos	21 / 52	21 / 52	0 / 2
4	Tony Ferguson	40 / 83	40 / 83	0 / 2
5	Tony Ferguson	43 / 75	43 / 75	0 / 0
5	Rafael Dos Anjos	26 / 49	26 / 49	0 / 0

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24