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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Rafael Dos Anjos won · U-DEC R5
Elo1491
Rafael Dos Anjos
Elo1523
Renato Moicano

Rafael Dos AnjosvsRenato MoicanoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Renato Moicano wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renato Moicano at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Renato Moicano
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1491
Elo
1523
41
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22
L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24
latest
Renato Moicano
oldest →
W
KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24
W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24
L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25
L
vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricRenato Moicano
3.48
Strikes / min
4.10
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
3.55
60%
Strike defense
59%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
1.68
54%
Takedown defense
64%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1621 vs 1566Strikes3.5 vs 4.4Takedowns1.9 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.60Form0.3 vs 0.6
Rafael Dos AnjosRenato Moicano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -32.0|Blue +32.0
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +455.0|Blue -455.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetRenato Moicano

By target zone

119
47% acc · 80%
Head
77
49% acc · 88%
23
96% acc · 15%
Body
8
73% acc · 9%
7
100% acc · 5%
Leg
3
100% acc · 3%

By position

84
42% acc · 56%
Distance
81
49% acc · 92%
7
88% acc · 5%
Clinch
7
100% acc · 8%
58
73% acc · 39%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Rafael Dos Anjos rounds
0
even
0
Renato Moicano rounds
Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns2
Control3:12
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:30Control
Round 2Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control2:44
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns0
Control3:05
Knockdowns1
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 4Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control3:53
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns1
Control0:28
36Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
149 / 286
Sig Strikes
88 / 172
53.6%
Sig Str %
51.4%
179 / 318
Total Strikes
99 / 185
5 / 15
TDs
0 / 3
48.2%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
13:22
Ctrl Time
0:30

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Renato Moicano10 / 2312 / 250 / 20
1Rafael Dos Anjos22 / 3430 / 432 / 20
2Renato Moicano15 / 2915 / 290 / 00
2Rafael Dos Anjos27 / 4732 / 521 / 60
3Renato Moicano15 / 2516 / 260 / 10
3Rafael Dos Anjos40 / 8452 / 970 / 20
4Rafael Dos Anjos22 / 4227 / 471 / 10
4Renato Moicano12 / 2220 / 320 / 00
5Renato Moicano36 / 7336 / 730 / 00
5Rafael Dos Anjos38 / 7938 / 791 / 40

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights20