Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
5 Rounds
Rafael Fiziev won · KO/TKO R5
Elo1491
Rafael Dos Anjos
Elo1509
Rafael Fiziev editorial illustration

Rafael Dos AnjosvsRafael FizievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Saturday, July 9, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Fiziev won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 0:18

Model Prediction: Rafael Fiziev wins(80.0%)

Actual result: Rafael Fiziev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Fiziev at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Rafael Dos Anjos has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Rafael Fiziev has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Fiziev
Blue Corner
+180
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
1491
Elo
1509
41
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
5'8"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Renato Moicano · Mar 22
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22
L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24
latest
Rafael Fiziev
oldest →
L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23
L
vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25
L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26
W
KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricRafael Fiziev
3.48
Strikes / min
4.71
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
4.84
60%
Strike defense
49%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
0.83
54%
Takedown defense
90%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1634 vs 1580Strikes3.5 vs 4.9Takedowns1.9 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.00Form0.8 vs 1.0
Rafael Dos AnjosRafael Fiziev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -18.7|Blue +18.7
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -91.0|Blue +91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetRafael Fiziev

By target zone

31
39% acc · 57%
Head
32
31% acc · 50%
12
86% acc · 22%
Body
27
52% acc · 42%
11
69% acc · 20%
Leg
5
100% acc · 8%

By position

50
47% acc · 93%
Distance
62
40% acc · 97%
4
100% acc · 7%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 2%
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Rafael Dos Anjos rounds
2
even
2
Rafael Fiziev rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control2:08
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:31
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:46Control
Round 3Rafael Fiziev edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:46
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:43Control
Round 4Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control1:48
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:27Control
Round 5Rafael Fiziev edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
54 / 110
Sig Strikes
64 / 159
51.4%
Sig Str %
40.8%
90 / 162
Total Strikes
92 / 192
2 / 16
TDs
0 / 1
8%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
6:13
Ctrl Time
2:59

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rafael Fiziev14 / 4117 / 440 / 00
1Rafael Dos Anjos9 / 2622 / 400 / 20
2Rafael Fiziev17 / 4420 / 480 / 10
2Rafael Dos Anjos19 / 3625 / 460 / 20
3Rafael Fiziev17 / 3824 / 450 / 00
3Rafael Dos Anjos9 / 2213 / 321 / 60
4Rafael Fiziev12 / 2727 / 460 / 00
4Rafael Dos Anjos15 / 2328 / 411 / 60
5Rafael Dos Anjos2 / 32 / 30 / 00
5Rafael Fiziev4 / 94 / 90 / 00

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32

Rafael Fiziev

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights13