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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Dos Anjos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1496

Rafael Dos AnjosvsNate DiazUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · Saturday, December 13, 2014Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Diaz at +250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nate Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos

Red Corner

Nate Diaz

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1491

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Nate Diaz

oldest →

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricNate Diaz

3.48

Strikes / min

4.57

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

60%

Strike defense

52%

1.95

TDs / 15 min

1.05

54%

Takedown defense

41%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael Dos AnjosNate Diaz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.7|Blue +5.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -266.0|Blue +266.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetNate Diaz

By target zone

57% acc · 60%

Head

12% acc · 92%

56% acc · 6%

Body

20% acc · 8%

90% acc · 34%

Leg

0% acc

By position

56% acc · 48%

Distance

12% acc · 92%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

76% acc · 51%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

even

Nate Diaz rounds

Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control1:41

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control1:44

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control4:22

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 119

Sig Strikes

13 / 104

66.7%

Sig Str %

129 / 175

Total Strikes

51 / 145

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:47

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nate Diaz	9 / 61	14 / 66	0 / 0
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	25 / 49	36 / 62	0 / 0
2	Nate Diaz	4 / 39	10 / 45	0 / 0
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	30 / 42	34 / 47	1 / 1
3	Nate Diaz	0 / 4	27 / 34	0 / 0
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	22 / 28	59 / 66	1 / 1

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18