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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chiesa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1529

Rafael Dos AnjosvsMichael ChiesaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, January 25, 2020Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Chiesa at +185 American odds

+$185 profit

$285 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Michael Chiesa has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos

Red Corner

Michael Chiesa

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1491

Elo

1529

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

6'1"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricMichael Chiesa

3.48

Strikes / min

2.02

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

1.73

60%

Strike defense

57%

1.95

TDs / 15 min

3.11

54%

Takedown defense

65%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael Dos AnjosMichael Chiesa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -38.3|Blue +38.3

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetMichael Chiesa

By target zone

9% acc · 14%

Head

13% acc · 67%

100% acc · 29%

Body

40% acc · 22%

89% acc · 57%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

39% acc · 100%

Distance

18% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

even

Michael Chiesa rounds

Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:11

1Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:31

7Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 3Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 36

Sig Strikes

9 / 51

47.7%

Sig Str %

16%

23 / 52

Total Strikes

54 / 107

0 / 1

TDs

6 / 8

TD %

80.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

10:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Chiesa	1 / 12	2 / 16	2 / 3
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	4 / 9	5 / 12	0 / 0
2	Michael Chiesa	7 / 34	12 / 39	3 / 4
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	8 / 24	11 / 29	0 / 1
3	Michael Chiesa	1 / 5	40 / 52	1 / 1
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	2 / 3	7 / 11	0 / 0

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22