Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
5 Rounds
Leon Edwards won · U-DEC R5
Elo1491
Rafael Dos Anjos
Elo1480
Leon Edwards

Rafael Dos AnjosvsLeon EdwardsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Saturday, July 20, 2019San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Leon Edwards wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leon Edwards at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Leon Edwards has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Leon Edwards
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
1491
Elo
1480
41
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
6'2"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22
L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24
latest
Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23
W
vs Colby Covington · Dec 23
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24
L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25
L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricLeon Edwards
3.48
Strikes / min
2.60
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
60%
Strike defense
52%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
1.25
54%
Takedown defense
63%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1644 vs 1630Strikes3.5 vs 2.5Takedowns1.8 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.40Form0.3 vs 1.1
Rafael Dos AnjosLeon Edwards

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Leon Edwards(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +10.8|Blue -10.8
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -63.0|Blue +63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetLeon Edwards

By target zone

41
36% acc · 51%
Head
72
38% acc · 78%
17
68% acc · 21%
Body
14
70% acc · 15%
23
79% acc · 28%
Leg
6
100% acc · 7%

By position

81
48% acc · 100%
Distance
77
39% acc · 84%
0
0% acc
Clinch
12
86% acc · 13%
0
Ground
3
50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rafael Dos Anjos rounds
2
even
3
Leon Edwards rounds
Round 1Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:07
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:14Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control1:18
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
Round 3Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:37
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:18Control
Round 4Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:07
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:03Control
Round 5Even round
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:14
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:26Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
81 / 169
Sig Strikes
92 / 215
50.2%
Sig Str %
42%
129 / 219
Total Strikes
113 / 244
0 / 5
TDs
3 / 10
0%
TD %
34%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:23
Ctrl Time
7:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Leon Edwards6 / 1511 / 251 / 20
1Rafael Dos Anjos8 / 1219 / 230 / 00
2Leon Edwards24 / 6125 / 630 / 10
2Rafael Dos Anjos23 / 4334 / 550 / 10
3Leon Edwards25 / 5233 / 610 / 10
3Rafael Dos Anjos11 / 2527 / 410 / 40
4Leon Edwards24 / 5429 / 601 / 10
4Rafael Dos Anjos22 / 5326 / 580 / 00
5Leon Edwards13 / 3315 / 351 / 50
5Rafael Dos Anjos17 / 3623 / 420 / 00

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights19