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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Khabib Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1493

Rafael Dos AnjosvsKhabib NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · Saturday, April 19, 2014Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Khabib Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(75.1%)

Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khabib Nurmagomedov at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos

Red Corner

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Blue Corner

+275

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-305

(75%)

1491

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17

vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19

SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricKhabib Nurmagomedov

3.48

Strikes / min

4.10

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

60%

Strike defense

65%

1.95

TDs / 15 min

5.32

54%

Takedown defense

84%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.25Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap+2.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael Dos AnjosKhabib Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.5|Blue +2.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +24.0|Blue -24.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetKhabib Nurmagomedov

By target zone

28% acc · 55%

Head

29% acc · 67%

50% acc · 35%

Body

75% acc · 17%

67% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

35% acc · 90%

Distance

19% acc · 39%

33% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

86% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

even

Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds

Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:21Control

Round 2Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:58Control

Round 3Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:14

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 56

Sig Strikes

36 / 97

38.7%

Sig Str %

36.7%

40 / 76

Total Strikes

72 / 135

0 / 1

TDs

6 / 12

TD %

47.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

9:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	8 / 35	14 / 42	2 / 4
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	10 / 32	21 / 43	0 / 0
2	Khabib Nurmagomedov	18 / 37	31 / 50	3 / 5
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	5 / 14	10 / 19	0 / 0
3	Khabib Nurmagomedov	10 / 25	27 / 43	1 / 3
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	5 / 10	9 / 14	0 / 1

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32

Khabib Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13