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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Rafael Dos Anjos won · SUB R4

Elo1491

Elo1466

Rafael Dos AnjosvsKevin LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · Saturday, May 18, 2019Rochester, New York, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

SUB · Round 4 · 3:47

Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Lee at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rafael Dos Anjos has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kevin Lee has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
Kevin Lee has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos

Red Corner

Kevin Lee

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1491

Elo

1466

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

vs Al Iaquinta · Dec 18

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricKevin Lee

3.48

Strikes / min

3.88

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

60%

Strike defense

50%

1.95

TDs / 15 min

3.18

54%

Takedown defense

75%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael Dos AnjosKevin Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.6|Blue -24.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +15.0|Blue -15.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetKevin Lee

By target zone

43% acc · 60%

Head

29% acc · 66%

81% acc · 28%

Body

63% acc · 29%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

41% acc · 55%

Distance

31% acc · 77%

90% acc · 30%

Clinch

70% acc · 20%

82% acc · 15%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

even

Kevin Lee rounds

Round 1Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:28

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:58Control

Round 2Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:35

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:56Control

Round 3Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control2:20

2Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 4Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:30

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:03Control

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 111

Sig Strikes

35 / 97

56.3%

Sig Str %

33%

75 / 126

Total Strikes

40 / 102

4 / 7

TDs

6 / 16

54%

TD %

41.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:53

Ctrl Time

8:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Lee	12 / 32	14 / 34	1 / 4	0
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	15 / 34	18 / 37	1 / 2	0
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	14 / 24	20 / 30	1 / 1	0
2	Kevin Lee	12 / 30	15 / 33	2 / 5	0
3	Kevin Lee	2 / 11	2 / 11	3 / 3	0
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	14 / 19	16 / 21	2 / 3	0
4	Kevin Lee	9 / 24	9 / 24	0 / 4	0
4	Rafael Dos Anjos	17 / 34	21 / 38	0 / 1	1

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19