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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Kamaru Usman won · U-DEC R5
Elo1491
Rafael Dos Anjos
Elo1489
Kamaru Usman editorial illustration

Rafael Dos AnjosvsKamaru UsmanUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Friday, November 30, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Kamaru Usman has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (54.1%).
  • Kamaru Usman has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Kamaru Usman
Blue Corner
+270
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-330
(77%)
1491
Elo
1489
41
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
5'8"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22
L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24
latest
Kamaru Usman
oldest →
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23
L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23
W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25
L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricKamaru Usman
3.48
Strikes / min
4.16
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
2.67
60%
Strike defense
55%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
2.79
54%
Takedown defense
89%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1645 vs 1641Strikes47.4 vs 49.6Takedowns1.8 vs 3.5Sub Atts0.56 vs 0.25Form0.2 vs 1.0
Rafael Dos AnjosKamaru Usman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Kamaru Usman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Recent Form
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetKamaru Usman

By target zone

27
36% acc · 44%
Head
95
52% acc · 73%
19
95% acc · 31%
Body
29
85% acc · 22%
16
89% acc · 26%
Leg
6
100% acc · 5%

By position

35
42% acc · 56%
Distance
48
43% acc · 37%
22
92% acc · 35%
Clinch
33
77% acc · 25%
5
100% acc · 8%
Ground
49
71% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rafael Dos Anjos rounds
0
even
5
Kamaru Usman rounds
Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:32Control
Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:55Control
Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:21
25Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
2:56Control
Round 4Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
41Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:31Control
Round 5Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
34Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:30Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
62 / 112
Sig Strikes
130 / 223
59.6%
Sig Str %
56.4%
84 / 138
Total Strikes
227 / 334
0 / 1
TDs
12 / 18
0%
TD %
66%
2
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
0:21
Ctrl Time
18:24

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kamaru Usman13 / 2732 / 482 / 40
1Rafael Dos Anjos13 / 2119 / 270 / 00
2Kamaru Usman17 / 3243 / 611 / 20
2Rafael Dos Anjos16 / 2228 / 360 / 02
3Rafael Dos Anjos20 / 4221 / 430 / 10
3Kamaru Usman25 / 4537 / 584 / 50
4Rafael Dos Anjos6 / 197 / 210 / 00
4Kamaru Usman41 / 6846 / 753 / 30
5Kamaru Usman34 / 5169 / 922 / 40
5Rafael Dos Anjos7 / 89 / 110 / 00

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20