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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Dos Anjos won · SUB R1
Elo1491
Rafael Dos Anjos
Elo1351
Kamal Shalorus

Rafael Dos AnjosvsKamal ShalorusUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · Tuesday, May 15, 2012Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:40

Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Dos Anjos at -365 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Kamal Shalorus has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Kamal Shalorus has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Kamal Shalorus
Blue Corner
-365
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+328
(23%)
1491
Elo
1351
41
Age
53
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22
L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24
latest
Kamal ShalorusL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jim Miller · Mar 11
L
SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Jan 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricKamal Shalorus
3.48
Strikes / min
3.06
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
2.99
60%
Strike defense
70%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
2.07
54%
Takedown defense
80%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1467Strikes24.8 vs 19.5Takedowns1.8 vs 0.5Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form-0.2 vs -1.0
Rafael Dos AnjosKamal Shalorus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Kamal Shalorus(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.1|Blue -139.1
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red +62.0|Blue -62.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetKamal Shalorus

By target zone

4
44% acc · 80%
Head
1
9% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 20%
Body
1
100% acc · 50%
0
Leg
0

By position

2
33% acc · 40%
Distance
1
9% acc · 50%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 50%
3
75% acc · 60%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Rafael Dos Anjos rounds
0
even
0
Kamal Shalorus rounds
Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:35
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
5 / 10
Sig Strikes
2 / 12
50%
Sig Str %
16%
11 / 17
Total Strikes
2 / 12
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:35
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kamal Shalorus2 / 122 / 120 / 10
1Rafael Dos Anjos5 / 1011 / 170 / 01

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32

Kamal Shalorus

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights3