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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Dos Anjos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1385

Rafael Dos AnjosvsEvan DunhamUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · Saturday, May 18, 2013Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Evan Dunham wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Evan Dunham at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Evan Dunham has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos

Red Corner

Evan Dunham

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1491

Elo

1385

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Evan DunhamL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricEvan Dunham

3.48

Strikes / min

5.33

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.54

60%

Strike defense

61%

1.95

TDs / 15 min

1.82

54%

Takedown defense

79%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.25Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+1.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael Dos AnjosEvan Dunham

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +105.7|Blue -105.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetEvan Dunham

By target zone

26% acc · 53%

Head

24% acc · 88%

58% acc · 23%

Body

38% acc · 7%

80% acc · 24%

Leg

75% acc · 4%

By position

34% acc · 85%

Distance

22% acc · 81%

63% acc · 15%

Clinch

58% acc · 16%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

even

Evan Dunham rounds

Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 2Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:33

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 3Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:09

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 183

Sig Strikes

68 / 270

38%

Sig Str %

23.7%

86 / 204

Total Strikes

90 / 295

0 / 2

TDs

3 / 7

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

2:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Evan Dunham	12 / 63	25 / 77	1 / 1
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	20 / 40	30 / 51	0 / 0
2	Evan Dunham	19 / 84	21 / 86	2 / 3
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	20 / 58	24 / 62	0 / 2
3	Evan Dunham	37 / 123	44 / 132	0 / 3
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	26 / 85	32 / 91	0 / 0

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17