Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Eddie Alvarez won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Rafael Dos Anjos
Elo1491
Eddie Alvarez

Rafael Dos AnjosvsEddie AlvarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · Thursday, July 7, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Eddie Alvarez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:49

Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Eddie Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Dos Anjos at -290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Eddie Alvarez has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Eddie Alvarez
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
1491
Elo
1491
41
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22
L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24
latest
Eddie Alvarez
oldest →
W
vs Gilbert Melendez · Jun 15
W
vs Anthony Pettis · Jan 16
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Nov 16
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Dec 17
L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricEddie Alvarez
3.48
Strikes / min
4.32
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
4.39
60%
Strike defense
55%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
2.92
54%
Takedown defense
92%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1659 vs 1529Strikes35.8 vs 40.3Takedowns2.0 vs 3.0Sub Atts0.63 vs 0.00Form1.1 vs 0.7
Rafael Dos AnjosEddie Alvarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +29.0|Blue -29.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetEddie Alvarez

By target zone

9
24% acc · 75%
Head
34
51% acc · 76%
2
100% acc · 17%
Body
8
100% acc · 18%
1
100% acc · 8%
Leg
3
100% acc · 7%

By position

10
26% acc · 83%
Distance
20
44% acc · 44%
2
67% acc · 17%
Clinch
22
73% acc · 49%
0
Ground
3
100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rafael Dos Anjos rounds
0
even
1
Eddie Alvarez rounds
Round 1Eddie Alvarez edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:22
45Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:20Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
12 / 41
Sig Strikes
45 / 78
29%
Sig Str %
57%
12 / 41
Total Strikes
49 / 83
0 / 1
TDs
1 / 3
0%
TD %
33%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:22
Ctrl Time
0:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Eddie Alvarez45 / 7849 / 831 / 30
1Rafael Dos Anjos12 / 4112 / 410 / 10

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32

Eddie Alvarez

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights7