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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Rafael Dos Anjos won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Rafael Dos Anjos
Elo1429
Donald Cerrone

Rafael Dos AnjosvsDonald CerroneUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · Saturday, December 19, 2015Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:06

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Donald Cerrone has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Donald Cerrone
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
1491
Elo
1429
41
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
6'1"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22
L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24
latest
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20
L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20
L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricDonald Cerrone
3.48
Strikes / min
4.41
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
4.48
60%
Strike defense
53%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
1.16
54%
Takedown defense
73%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1638 vs 1684Strikes36.3 vs 45.6Takedowns2.2 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.67 vs 0.39Form0.8 vs 1.0
Rafael Dos AnjosDonald Cerrone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +61.9|Blue -61.9
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetDonald Cerrone

By target zone

21
54% acc · 81%
Head
2
40% acc · 50%
4
100% acc · 15%
Body
1
100% acc · 25%
1
100% acc · 4%
Leg
1
100% acc · 25%

By position

19
61% acc · 73%
Distance
4
57% acc · 100%
1
50% acc · 4%
Clinch
0
6
55% acc · 23%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Rafael Dos Anjos rounds
0
even
0
Donald Cerrone rounds
Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:09
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
26 / 44
Sig Strikes
4 / 7
59%
Sig Str %
57%
26 / 44
Total Strikes
4 / 7
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:09
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Donald Cerrone4 / 74 / 70 / 10
1Rafael Dos Anjos26 / 4426 / 440 / 00

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37