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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nurullo Aliev won · M-DEC R3

Elo1451

Elo1559

Rafael AlvesvsNurullo AlievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Saturday, February 25, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nurullo Aliev won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Nurullo Aliev wins(72.2%)

Actual result: Nurullo Aliev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nurullo Aliev at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nurullo Aliev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Nurullo Aliev has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Nurullo Aliev has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Alves

Red Corner

Nurullo Aliev

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-180

(64%)

1451

Elo

1559

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Alves

oldest →

vs Damir Ismagulov · May 21

SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Nov 21

KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 22

latest

Nurullo AlievW3 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Solecki · Jan 25

vs Shem Rock · Nov 25

DECvs Mike Davis · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael AlvesMetricNurullo Aliev

1.85

Strikes / min

2.72

3.30

Strikes absorbed / min

1.63

58%

Strike defense

58%

0.29

TDs / 15 min

2.12

44%

Takedown defense

80%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.45Δ 2.54 — meaningful gap+1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael AlvesNurullo Aliev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Alves(4 fights)Nurullo Aliev(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -107.7|Blue +107.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael AlvesTargetNurullo Aliev

By target zone

18% acc · 33%

Head

45% acc · 100%

67% acc · 33%

Body

0% acc

67% acc · 33%

Leg

0% acc

By position

35% acc · 100%

Distance

10% acc · 5%

Clinch

Ground

51% acc · 95%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Alves rounds

even

Nurullo Aliev rounds

Round 1Nurullo Aliev edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:27Control

Round 2Nurullo Aliev edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:13Control

Round 3Nurullo Aliev edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control1:18

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 17

Sig Strikes

19 / 45

28%

Sig Str %

34.7%

25 / 36

Total Strikes

92 / 140

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 4

—

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

10:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nurullo Aliev	0 / 6	9 / 16	1 / 2	0
1	Rafael Alves	4 / 9	13 / 18	0 / 0	0
2	Nurullo Aliev	6 / 10	47 / 59	1 / 1	0
2	Rafael Alves	0 / 3	7 / 10	0 / 0	1
3	Nurullo Aliev	13 / 29	36 / 65	1 / 1	0
3	Rafael Alves	2 / 5	5 / 8	0 / 0	1

Rafael Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Nurullo Aliev

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5