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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Damir Ismagulov won · U-DEC

Elo1451

Elo1469

Rafael AlvesvsDamir IsmagulovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · Saturday, May 22, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Damir Ismagulov won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Damir Ismagulov wins(76.4%)

Actual result: Damir Ismagulov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Damir Ismagulov at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Damir Ismagulov has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Damir Ismagulov has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Alves

Red Corner

Damir Ismagulov

Blue Corner

+400

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-500

(83%)

1451

Elo

1469

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael AlvesL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Nov 21

KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 22

vs Nurullo Aliev · Feb 23

latest

Damir IsmagulovL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joel Alvarez · Feb 19

vs Thiago Moises · Aug 19

vs Guram Kutateladze · Jun 22

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 22

vs Grant Dawson · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael AlvesMetricDamir Ismagulov

1.85

Strikes / min

3.36

3.30

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

58%

Strike defense

61%

0.29

TDs / 15 min

1.00

44%

Takedown defense

70%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.45Δ 2.37 — meaningful gap+0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael AlvesDamir Ismagulov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Alves(4 fights)Damir Ismagulov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.1|Blue +18.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael AlvesTargetDamir Ismagulov

By target zone

40% acc · 67%

Head

33% acc · 54%

86% acc · 20%

Body

67% acc · 29%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

91% acc · 18%

By position

47% acc · 93%

Distance

36% acc · 66%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

86% acc · 34%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Alves rounds

even

Damir Ismagulov rounds

Round 1Damir Ismagulov edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:46Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Damir Ismagulov edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 3Damir Ismagulov edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:14

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 63

Sig Strikes

56 / 126

42.3%

Sig Str %

49.7%

36 / 69

Total Strikes

141 / 220

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

7:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Damir Ismagulov	17 / 23	68 / 81	0 / 0	0
1	Rafael Alves	2 / 7	4 / 9	0 / 0	1
2	Damir Ismagulov	24 / 66	50 / 94	1 / 1	0
2	Rafael Alves	12 / 26	12 / 26	0 / 1	0
3	Damir Ismagulov	15 / 37	23 / 45	1 / 2	0
3	Rafael Alves	16 / 30	20 / 34	0 / 0	0

Rafael Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Damir Ismagulov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7