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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafa Garcia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1533

Elo1488

Rafa GarciavsVinc PichelUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Saturday, March 29, 2025Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Rafa Garcia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRafa Garcia: WrestlervsVinc Pichel: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rafa Garcia wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Rafa Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafa Garcia at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafa Garcia has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rafa Garcia

Red Corner

Vinc Pichel

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1533

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafa GarciaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Maheshate · Dec 22

vs Clay Guida · Apr 23

KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24

KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25

DECvs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 26

latest

Vinc PichelL2 streak

oldest →

vs Roosevelt Roberts · Jun 19

vs Jim Miller · Aug 20

vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 21

vs Mark Madsen · Apr 22

vs Ismael Bonfim · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafa GarciaMetricVinc Pichel

4.28

Strikes / min

3.78

4.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

61%

Strike defense

54%

3.22

TDs / 15 min

2.50

77%

Takedown defense

31%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.14evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafa GarciaVinc Pichel

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafa Garcia(10 fights)Vinc Pichel(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.9|Blue -44.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -161.0|Blue +161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafa GarciaTargetVinc Pichel

By target zone

48% acc · 77%

Head

28% acc · 41%

86% acc · 19%

Body

63% acc · 34%

75% acc · 5%

Leg

87% acc · 25%

By position

52% acc · 92%

Distance

43% acc · 94%

80% acc · 6%

Clinch

57% acc · 5%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafa Garcia rounds

even

Vinc Pichel rounds

Round 1Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:06

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:23

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control0:46

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 120

Sig Strikes

79 / 182

52.3%

Sig Str %

41.3%

76 / 136

Total Strikes

88 / 191

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 3

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:15

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vinc Pichel	13 / 38	21 / 46	0 / 0
1	Rafa Garcia	12 / 24	19 / 33	1 / 2
2	Vinc Pichel	32 / 70	32 / 70	0 / 1
2	Rafa Garcia	21 / 49	24 / 52	0 / 2
3	Vinc Pichel	34 / 74	35 / 75	0 / 2
3	Rafa Garcia	31 / 47	33 / 51	1 / 2

Rafa Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Vinc Pichel

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12