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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafa Garcia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1533

Elo1497

Rafa GarciavsNatan LevyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Saturday, November 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafa Garcia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRafa Garcia: WrestlervsNatan Levy: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rafa Garcia wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Rafa Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafa Garcia at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafa Garcia enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Rafa Garcia has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Natan Levy (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafa Garcia

Red Corner

Natan Levy

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1533

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafa GarciaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Clay Guida · Apr 23

KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24

vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25

DECvs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 26

latest

Natan Levy

oldest →

vs Mike Breeden · Apr 22

vs Genaro Valdez · Dec 22

SUBvs Mike Davis · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafa GarciaMetricNatan Levy

4.28

Strikes / min

3.70

4.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.19

61%

Strike defense

58%

3.22

TDs / 15 min

5.03

77%

Takedown defense

41%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.14evenly matched on net striking+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafa GarciaNatan Levy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafa Garcia(10 fights)Natan Levy(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.6|Blue -35.6

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafa GarciaTargetNatan Levy

By target zone

28% acc · 60%

Head

22% acc · 45%

77% acc · 29%

Body

73% acc · 40%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

37% acc · 89%

Distance

37% acc · 96%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

33% acc · 4%

20% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafa Garcia rounds

even

Natan Levy rounds

Round 1Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control2:14

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Natan Levy edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control0:58

17Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 3Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns3

Control2:25

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 91

Sig Strikes

47 / 127

39.7%

Sig Str %

36.7%

55 / 117

Total Strikes

56 / 136

7 / 12

TDs

3 / 7

60.7%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

5:37

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Natan Levy	13 / 44	16 / 47	0 / 2
1	Rafa Garcia	13 / 24	20 / 32	2 / 3
2	Natan Levy	17 / 40	17 / 40	3 / 3
2	Rafa Garcia	11 / 35	15 / 40	2 / 3
3	Natan Levy	17 / 43	23 / 49	0 / 2
3	Rafa Garcia	11 / 32	20 / 45	3 / 6

Rafa Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Natan Levy

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4