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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafa Garcia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1533

Elo1486

Rafa GarciavsMaheshateUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Saturday, December 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafa Garcia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRafa Garcia: WrestlervsMaheshate: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Rafa Garcia wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Rafa Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafa Garcia at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafa Garcia enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Rafa Garcia has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rafa Garcia has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Rafa Garcia

Red Corner

Maheshate

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1533

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafa GarciaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Clay Guida · Apr 23

KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24

vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25

DECvs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 26

latest

MaheshateL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 22

KOvs Viacheslav Borshchev · May 23

vs Gabriel Benitez · Apr 24

vs Nikolas Motta · Nov 24

vs Gauge Young · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafa GarciaMetricMaheshate

4.28

Strikes / min

3.96

4.42

Strikes absorbed / min

5.96

61%

Strike defense

51%

3.22

TDs / 15 min

0.00

77%

Takedown defense

47%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.14Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap-2.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafa GarciaMaheshate

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafa Garcia(10 fights)Maheshate(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +47.0|Blue -47.0

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafa GarciaTargetMaheshate

By target zone

41% acc · 59%

Head

15% acc · 64%

65% acc · 22%

Body

28% acc · 32%

82% acc · 18%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

44% acc · 57%

Distance

17% acc · 92%

85% acc · 22%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

48% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafa Garcia rounds

even

Maheshate rounds

Round 1Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:29

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control2:26

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns3

Control3:15

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 98

Sig Strikes

25 / 141

50.3%

Sig Str %

18%

79 / 138

Total Strikes

30 / 148

6 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

45%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:10

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Maheshate	11 / 62	11 / 63	0 / 0
1	Rafa Garcia	16 / 29	16 / 31	0 / 2
2	Maheshate	8 / 52	8 / 52	0 / 0
2	Rafa Garcia	13 / 36	27 / 54	3 / 4
3	Maheshate	6 / 27	11 / 33	0 / 0
3	Rafa Garcia	20 / 33	36 / 53	3 / 5

Rafa Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Maheshate

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6