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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rafa Garcia won · SUB R2

Elo1533

Elo1437

Rafa GarciavsJesse RonsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · Saturday, April 16, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafa Garcia won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:50

Style matchupRafa Garcia: WrestlervsJesse Ronson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rafa Garcia wins(85.8%)

Actual result: Rafa Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafa Garcia at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafa Garcia enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Rafa Garcia has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jesse Ronson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafa Garcia

Red Corner

Jesse Ronson

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1533

Elo

1437

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafa GarciaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Clay Guida · Apr 23

KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24

vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25

DECvs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 26

latest

Jesse Ronson

oldest →

vs Michel Prazeres · Sep 13

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 14

vs Kevin Lee · Jul 14

SUBvs Nicolas Dalby · Jul 20

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafa GarciaMetricJesse Ronson

4.28

Strikes / min

3.54

4.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.39

61%

Strike defense

57%

3.22

TDs / 15 min

0.46

77%

Takedown defense

57%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.14evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafa GarciaJesse Ronson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafa Garcia(10 fights)Jesse Ronson(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +96.0|Blue -96.0

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -483.0|Blue +483.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafa GarciaTargetJesse Ronson

By target zone

41% acc · 89%

Head

27% acc · 52%

100% acc · 9%

Body

86% acc · 24%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

37% acc · 74%

Distance

42% acc · 100%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

89% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafa Garcia rounds

even

Jesse Ronson rounds

Round 1Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control0:35

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control4:02

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 80

Sig Strikes

25 / 61

48%

Sig Str %

33%

73 / 126

Total Strikes

28 / 64

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:37

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jesse Ronson	23 / 52	25 / 54	0 / 0	0
1	Rafa Garcia	26 / 64	32 / 73	1 / 2	0
2	Jesse Ronson	2 / 9	3 / 10	0 / 1	0
2	Rafa Garcia	9 / 16	41 / 53	2 / 2	1

Rafa Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Jesse Ronson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6