Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafa Garcia has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafa GarciaW2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24W
DECvs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 26 Jared Gordon
oldest →L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 22W
KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24W
KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25L
SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafa GarciaMetricJared Gordon
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.14Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+1.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rafa GarciaJared Gordon
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafa Garcia(10 fights)Jared Gordon(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +50.2|Blue -50.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rafa GarciaTargetJared Gordon
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rafa Garcia edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control0:24
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rafa Garcia edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns1
Control1:12
31Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 3Rafa Garcia edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control0:25
Knockdowns1
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
