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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafa Garcia won · Decision R3
Elo1533
Rafa Garcia
Elo1523

Rafa GarciavsAlexander HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Saturday, April 25, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Rafa Garcia won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRafa Garcia: WrestlervsAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rafa Garcia wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Rafa Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alexander Hernandez enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Rafa Garcia
Red Corner
VS
Alexander Hernandez
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1533
Elo
1523
31
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafa GarciaW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Maheshate · Dec 22
W
vs Clay Guida · Apr 23
L
KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24
W
vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25
W
KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25
latest
Alexander HernandezW4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24
W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24
W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25
W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25
W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafa GarciaMetricAlexander Hernandez
4.28
Strikes / min
4.23
4.42
Strikes absorbed / min
4.45
61%
Strike defense
59%
3.22
TDs / 15 min
1.05
77%
Takedown defense
68%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.14evenly matched on net striking-0.22
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Rafa Garcia(10 fights)Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +9.5|Blue -9.5
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Rafa Garcia

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights18