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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Quillan Salkilld won · U-DEC R3

Elo1602

Elo1495

Quillan SalkilldvsYanal AshmouzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Saturday, June 7, 2025Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Quillan Salkilld won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupQuillan Salkilld: WrestlervsYanal Ashmouz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Quillan Salkilld wins(91.6%)

Actual result: Quillan Salkilld wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Quillan Salkilld at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Quillan Salkilld enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Quillan Salkilld has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Quillan Salkilld has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Quillan Salkilld

Red Corner

Yanal Ashmouz

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1602

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Quillan SalkilldW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anshul Jubli · Feb 25

KOvs Nasrat Haqparast · Oct 25

SUBvs Jamie Mullarkey · Jan 26

KOvs Beneil Dariush · May 26

latest

Yanal Ashmouz

oldest →

KOvs Sam Patterson · Mar 23

vs Chris Duncan · Jul 23

vs Trevor Peek · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Quillan SalkilldMetricYanal Ashmouz

5.01

Strikes / min

2.88

3.03

Strikes absorbed / min

4.78

45%

Strike defense

50%

7.25

TDs / 15 min

3.24

80%

Takedown defense

64%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.98Δ 3.88 — meaningful gap-1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Quillan SalkilldYanal Ashmouz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Quillan Salkilld(5 fights)Yanal Ashmouz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +107.0|Blue -107.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Quillan SalkilldTargetYanal Ashmouz

By target zone

55% acc · 68%

Head

48% acc · 76%

95% acc · 23%

Body

64% acc · 17%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

62% acc · 65%

Distance

41% acc · 54%

68% acc · 19%

Clinch

82% acc · 34%

65% acc · 16%

Ground

71% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Quillan Salkilld rounds

even

Yanal Ashmouz rounds

Round 1Quillan Salkilld edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns4

Control2:45

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 2Quillan Salkilld edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns3

Control3:30

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 3Quillan Salkilld edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns1

Control1:20

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 124

Sig Strikes

41 / 78

63.3%

Sig Str %

56%

89 / 135

Total Strikes

65 / 106

8 / 23

TDs

0 / 6

35.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:35

Ctrl Time

2:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yanal Ashmouz	14 / 25	26 / 41	0 / 4
1	Quillan Salkilld	19 / 27	24 / 32	4 / 9
2	Yanal Ashmouz	8 / 12	15 / 19	0 / 2
2	Quillan Salkilld	20 / 37	23 / 41	3 / 6
3	Yanal Ashmouz	19 / 41	24 / 46	0 / 0
3	Quillan Salkilld	40 / 60	42 / 62	1 / 8

Quillan Salkilld

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4

Yanal Ashmouz

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4