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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Punahele Soriano won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1535
Punahele Soriano
Elo1539
Uros Medic editorial illustration

Punahele SorianovsUros MedicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Saturday, January 11, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Punahele Soriano won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:31

Model Prediction: Uros Medic wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Punahele Soriano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Uros Medic at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Punahele Soriano enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Uros Medic enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Punahele Soriano
Red Corner
VS
Uros Medic
Blue Corner
+198
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-240
(71%)
1535
Elo
1539
33
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Punahele SorianoW3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 23
L
SUBvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Dec 23
W
vs Miguel Baeza · Jun 24
W
vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Oct 25
W
vs Ramiz Brahimaj · Feb 26
latest
Uros MedicW4 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 23
W
KOvs Tim Means · Apr 24
W
KOvs Gilbert Urbina · Aug 25
W
KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 25
W
KOvs Geoff Neal · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Punahele SorianoMetricUros Medic
4.42
Strikes / min
5.59
3.31
Strikes absorbed / min
3.42
47%
Strike defense
56%
1.97
TDs / 15 min
0.34
48%
Takedown defense
55%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.11Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+2.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1497 vs 1536Strikes4.4 vs 5.6Takedowns2.0 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs 0.4
Punahele SorianoUros Medic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Punahele Soriano(10 fights)Uros Medic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.4|Blue +4.4
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Punahele SorianoTargetUros Medic

By target zone

12
75% acc · 92%
Head
1
50% acc · 50%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 8%
Leg
0

By position

5
63% acc · 38%
Distance
2
67% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
8
89% acc · 62%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Punahele Soriano rounds
0
even
0
Uros Medic rounds
Round 1Punahele Soriano edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
13 / 17
Sig Strikes
2 / 3
76%
Sig Str %
66%
13 / 17
Total Strikes
2 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Uros Medic2 / 32 / 30 / 00
1Punahele Soriano13 / 1713 / 170 / 00

Punahele Soriano

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11

Uros Medic

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10