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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Punahele Soriano won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1535

Elo1385

Punahele SorianovsOskar PiechotaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Saturday, December 14, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Punahele Soriano won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:17

Model Prediction: Oskar Piechota wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Punahele Soriano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Oskar Piechota at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Punahele Soriano enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Oskar Piechota enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Punahele Soriano is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Oskar Piechota has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Oskar Piechota has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Punahele Soriano

Red Corner

Oskar Piechota

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1535

Elo

1385

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Punahele SorianoW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Dec 23

vs Miguel Baeza · Jun 24

KOvs Uros Medic · Jan 25

vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Oct 25

vs Ramiz Brahimaj · Feb 26

latest

Oskar PiechotaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jonathan Wilson · Oct 17

KOvs Tim Williams · Feb 18

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Jul 18

SUBvs Rodolfo Vieira · Aug 19

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Punahele SorianoMetricOskar Piechota

4.42

Strikes / min

3.30

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.93

47%

Strike defense

51%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

0.61

48%

Takedown defense

38%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Punahele SorianoOskar Piechota

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Punahele Soriano(10 fights)Oskar Piechota(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +149.6|Blue -149.6

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +48.3|Blue -48.3

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Punahele SorianoTargetOskar Piechota

By target zone

54% acc · 77%

Head

36% acc · 50%

86% acc · 23%

Body

75% acc · 38%

Leg

50% acc · 13%

By position

53% acc · 38%

Distance

25% acc · 38%

67% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

64% acc · 54%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Punahele Soriano rounds

even

Oskar Piechota rounds

Round 1Punahele Soriano edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control1:14

Knockdowns2

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 44

Sig Strikes

8 / 17

59%

Sig Str %

47%

26 / 46

Total Strikes

11 / 20

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:14

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Oskar Piechota	8 / 17	11 / 20	0 / 0	0
1	Punahele Soriano	26 / 44	26 / 46	1 / 1	0

Punahele Soriano

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Oskar Piechota

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6