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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Punahele Soriano won · U-DEC R3

Elo1535

Elo1492

Punahele SorianovsNikolay VeretennikovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · Saturday, October 4, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Punahele Soriano won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Punahele Soriano wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Punahele Soriano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Punahele Soriano at -405 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Punahele Soriano enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Punahele Soriano is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Nikolay Veretennikov has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Punahele Soriano (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Punahele Soriano

Red Corner

Nikolay Veretennikov

Blue Corner

-405

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1535

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Punahele SorianoW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 23

SUBvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Dec 23

vs Miguel Baeza · Jun 24

KOvs Uros Medic · Jan 25

vs Ramiz Brahimaj · Feb 26

latest

Nikolay Veretennikov

oldest →

vs Danny Barlow · Aug 24

KOvs Austin Vanderford · Feb 25

vs Francisco Prado · Jul 25

KOvs Niko Price · Feb 26

KOvs Khaos Williams · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Punahele SorianoMetricNikolay Veretennikov

4.42

Strikes / min

2.69

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.30

47%

Strike defense

45%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

0.42

48%

Takedown defense

62%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Punahele SorianoNikolay Veretennikov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Punahele Soriano(10 fights)Nikolay Veretennikov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.5|Blue -42.5

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +189.0|Blue -189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Punahele SorianoTargetNikolay Veretennikov

By target zone

75% acc · 97%

Head

100% acc · 22%

33% acc · 3%

Body

67% acc · 67%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

25% acc · 3%

Distance

67% acc · 44%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

80% acc · 44%

76% acc · 95%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Punahele Soriano rounds

even

Nikolay Veretennikov rounds

Round 1Punahele Soriano edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control4:05

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Punahele Soriano edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control4:13

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 3Punahele Soriano edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control4:17

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 54

Sig Strikes

9 / 12

72.3%

Sig Str %

72.7%

163 / 200

Total Strikes

34 / 37

4 / 11

TDs

0 / 1

35.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

12:35

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nikolay Veretennikov	6 / 7	21 / 22	0 / 1	0
1	Punahele Soriano	21 / 30	82 / 105	1 / 3	0
2	Nikolay Veretennikov	1 / 3	8 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Punahele Soriano	11 / 13	34 / 44	1 / 3	1
3	Nikolay Veretennikov	2 / 2	5 / 5	0 / 0	2
3	Punahele Soriano	7 / 11	47 / 51	2 / 5	0

Punahele Soriano

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Nikolay Veretennikov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5