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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Stoltzfus won · SUB R2

Elo1535

Elo1486

Punahele SorianovsDustin StoltzfusUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Saturday, December 2, 2023Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Stoltzfus won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:10

Model Prediction: Punahele Soriano wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Dustin Stoltzfus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Punahele Soriano at -360 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Punahele Soriano enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Punahele Soriano (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Punahele Soriano

Red Corner

Dustin Stoltzfus

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1535

Elo

1486

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Punahele SorianoW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 23

vs Miguel Baeza · Jun 24

KOvs Uros Medic · Jan 25

vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Oct 25

vs Ramiz Brahimaj · Feb 26

latest

Dustin StoltzfusL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Abus Magomedov · Sep 22

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Nov 24

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 25

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Punahele SorianoMetricDustin Stoltzfus

4.42

Strikes / min

3.30

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

47%

Strike defense

47%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

2.08

48%

Takedown defense

46%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Punahele SorianoDustin Stoltzfus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Punahele Soriano(10 fights)Dustin Stoltzfus(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +49.2|Blue -49.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Punahele SorianoTargetDustin Stoltzfus

By target zone

32% acc · 58%

Head

30% acc · 38%

82% acc · 29%

Body

85% acc · 36%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 27%

By position

42% acc · 97%

Distance

52% acc · 94%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

57% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Punahele Soriano rounds

even

Dustin Stoltzfus rounds

Round 1Dustin Stoltzfus edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

41Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:29Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Dustin Stoltzfus edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 73

Sig Strikes

64 / 123

40%

Sig Str %

51.5%

33 / 76

Total Strikes

78 / 140

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

62.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Stoltzfus	41 / 79	43 / 82	1 / 4	0
1	Punahele Soriano	22 / 47	22 / 47	0 / 0	0
2	Dustin Stoltzfus	23 / 44	35 / 58	3 / 3	1
2	Punahele Soriano	9 / 26	11 / 29	0 / 0	0

Punahele Soriano

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Dustin Stoltzfus

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10