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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Punahele Soriano won · KO/TKO

Elo1535

Elo1494

Punahele SorianovsDusko TodorovicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · Saturday, January 16, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Punahele Soriano won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Dusko Todorovic wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Punahele Soriano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dusko Todorovic at -159 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Punahele Soriano enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Punahele Soriano is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Dusko Todorovic has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Punahele Soriano (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Punahele Soriano

Red Corner

Dusko Todorovic

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-159

(61%)

1535

Elo

1494

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Punahele SorianoW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Dec 23

vs Miguel Baeza · Jun 24

KOvs Uros Medic · Jan 25

vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Oct 25

vs Ramiz Brahimaj · Feb 26

latest

Dusko Todorovic

oldest →

KOvs Jordan Wright · Oct 22

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 23

KOvs Mansur Abdul-Malik · Nov 24

vs Zach Reese · May 25

SUBvs Jose Daniel Medina · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Punahele SorianoMetricDusko Todorovic

4.42

Strikes / min

4.73

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

47%

Strike defense

48%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

1.77

48%

Takedown defense

42%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Punahele SorianoDusko Todorovic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Punahele Soriano(10 fights)Dusko Todorovic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.4|Blue -40.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +294.0|Blue -294.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Punahele SorianoTargetDusko Todorovic

By target zone

42% acc · 83%

Head

31% acc · 68%

80% acc · 13%

Body

88% acc · 32%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

41% acc · 70%

Distance

34% acc · 82%

80% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 18%

50% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Punahele Soriano rounds

even

Dusko Todorovic rounds

Round 1Punahele Soriano edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:38

Knockdowns2

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 66

Sig Strikes

22 / 57

45%

Sig Str %

38%

32 / 69

Total Strikes

23 / 59

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dusko Todorovic	22 / 57	23 / 59	0 / 0	0
1	Punahele Soriano	30 / 66	32 / 69	0 / 1	0

Punahele Soriano

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Dusko Todorovic

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10