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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1535

Elo1550

Punahele SorianovsBrendan AllenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Saturday, July 24, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Punahele Soriano enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Punahele Soriano is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Brendan Allen has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Punahele Soriano (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Punahele Soriano

Red Corner

Brendan Allen

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1535

Elo

1550

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Punahele SorianoW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Dec 23

vs Miguel Baeza · Jun 24

KOvs Uros Medic · Jan 25

vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Oct 25

vs Ramiz Brahimaj · Feb 26

latest

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Punahele SorianoMetricBrendan Allen

4.42

Strikes / min

3.59

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

47%

Strike defense

47%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

1.56

48%

Takedown defense

56%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Punahele SorianoBrendan Allen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Punahele Soriano(10 fights)Brendan Allen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.6|Blue +15.6

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Punahele SorianoTargetBrendan Allen

By target zone

39% acc · 70%

Head

31% acc · 50%

68% acc · 26%

Body

80% acc · 39%

60% acc · 5%

Leg

91% acc · 11%

By position

44% acc · 95%

Distance

43% acc · 90%

43% acc · 5%

Clinch

60% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Punahele Soriano rounds

even

Brendan Allen rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:21

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 149

Sig Strikes

94 / 211

44%

Sig Str %

44.3%

66 / 149

Total Strikes

94 / 211

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brendan Allen	28 / 62	28 / 62	0 / 0
1	Punahele Soriano	28 / 57	28 / 57	0 / 0
2	Brendan Allen	35 / 72	35 / 72	0 / 1
2	Punahele Soriano	18 / 39	18 / 39	0 / 0
3	Brendan Allen	31 / 77	31 / 77	0 / 0
3	Punahele Soriano	20 / 53	20 / 53	0 / 0

Punahele Soriano

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19