Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jacobe Smith won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1546
Jacobe Smith

Preston ParsonsvsJacobe SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Saturday, January 11, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jacobe Smith won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:13

Style matchupPreston Parsons: WrestlervsJacobe Smith: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jacobe Smith wins(75.9%)

Actual result: Jacobe Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacobe Smith at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jacobe Smith is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Preston Parsons has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Jacobe Smith has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jacobe Smith (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Preston Parsons
Red Corner
VS
Jacobe Smith
Blue Corner
+450
(18%)
Vegas Odds
-600
(86%)
1490
Elo
1546
31
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Preston Parsons
oldest →
L
KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 21
W
vs Evan Elder · Apr 22
L
vs Trevin Giles · Mar 23
W
vs Matthew Semelsberger · Jan 24
L
vs Oban Elliott · Jul 24
latest
Jacobe SmithW2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Niko Price · Jun 25
W
KOvs Josiah Harrell · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Preston ParsonsMetricJacobe Smith
3.54
Strikes / min
6.89
3.25
Strikes absorbed / min
2.78
54%
Strike defense
47%
3.46
TDs / 15 min
7.78
71%
Takedown defense
100%
2.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29Δ 3.82 — meaningful gap+4.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1489 vs 1500Strikes3.5 vs 6.9Takedowns3.5 vs 7.8Sub Atts2.30 vs 0.70Form-0.3 vs 0.0
Preston ParsonsJacobe Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701493151515381560← oldermost recent →
Preston Parsons(6 fights)Jacobe Smith(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -56.1|Blue +56.1
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Preston ParsonsTargetJacobe Smith

By target zone

6
50% acc · 86%
Head
8
47% acc · 67%
1
100% acc · 14%
Body
2
67% acc · 17%
0
0% acc
Leg
2
67% acc · 17%

By position

6
46% acc · 86%
Distance
11
52% acc · 92%
1
100% acc · 14%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Preston Parsons rounds
0
even
1
Jacobe Smith rounds
Round 1Jacobe Smith edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
7 / 14
Sig Strikes
12 / 23
50%
Sig Str %
52%
8 / 15
Total Strikes
12 / 23
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jacobe Smith12 / 2312 / 230 / 00
1Preston Parsons7 / 148 / 150 / 00

Preston Parsons

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6

Jacobe Smith

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3