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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Tabatha Ricci won · U-DEC R3

Elo1460

Elo1492

Polyana VianavsTabatha RicciUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · Saturday, May 21, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tabatha Ricci won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tabatha Ricci wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Tabatha Ricci wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tabatha Ricci at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Polyana Viana enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tabatha Ricci has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Polyana Viana has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Polyana Viana

Red Corner

Tabatha Ricci

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1460

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'1"

170.18 cm

Reach

154.94 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Polyana VianaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jinh Yu Frey · Nov 22

SUBvs Iasmin Lucindo · Aug 23

KOvs Gillian Robertson · Jan 24

SUBvs Jaqueline Amorim · Apr 25

SUBvs Alice Ardelean · May 26

latest

Tabatha RicciL2 streak

oldest →

vs Angela Hill · Aug 24

vs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 24

KOvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 25

DECvs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 26

DECvs Fatima Kline · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Polyana VianaMetricTabatha Ricci

2.74

Strikes / min

4.00

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

4.83

53%

Strike defense

57%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

2.51

35%

Takedown defense

65%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.24Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap-0.83

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Polyana VianaTabatha Ricci

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Polyana Viana(10 fights)Tabatha Ricci(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.9|Blue +31.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +252.0|Blue -252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Polyana VianaTargetTabatha Ricci

By target zone

24% acc · 50%

Head

26% acc · 33%

79% acc · 31%

Body

38% acc · 9%

78% acc · 19%

Leg

86% acc · 58%

By position

34% acc · 81%

Distance

37% acc · 64%

43% acc · 8%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 11%

Ground

80% acc · 36%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Polyana Viana rounds

even

Tabatha Ricci rounds

Round 1Tabatha Ricci edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:57Control

Round 3Tabatha Ricci edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:09

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 97

Sig Strikes

33 / 73

38.7%

Sig Str %

47.3%

126 / 212

Total Strikes

72 / 126

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 10

—

TD %

52%

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

9:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tabatha Ricci	9 / 18	28 / 39	1 / 2
1	Polyana Viana	7 / 20	53 / 76	0 / 0
2	Tabatha Ricci	12 / 34	24 / 47	2 / 3
2	Polyana Viana	20 / 58	40 / 79	0 / 0
3	Tabatha Ricci	12 / 21	20 / 40	2 / 5
3	Polyana Viana	9 / 19	33 / 57	0 / 0

Polyana Viana

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11

Tabatha Ricci

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights12