Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Polyana Viana won · SUB

Elo1460

Elo1413

Polyana VianavsMallory MartinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Saturday, February 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Polyana Viana won

SUB

Model Prediction: Mallory Martin wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Polyana Viana wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mallory Martin at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Polyana Viana enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Polyana Viana threatens submissions; Mallory Martin has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Mallory Martin threatens submissions; Polyana Viana has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Polyana Viana has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Polyana Viana

Red Corner

Mallory Martin

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1460

Elo

1413

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Polyana VianaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jinh Yu Frey · Nov 22

SUBvs Iasmin Lucindo · Aug 23

KOvs Gillian Robertson · Jan 24

SUBvs Jaqueline Amorim · Apr 25

SUBvs Alice Ardelean · May 26

latest

Mallory Martin

oldest →

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Dec 19

SUBvs Hannah Cifers · Aug 20

vs Cheyanne Vlismas · Dec 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Polyana VianaMetricMallory Martin

2.74

Strikes / min

4.42

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

6.64

53%

Strike defense

55%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

2.28

35%

Takedown defense

25%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.24Δ 2.46 — meaningful gap-2.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Polyana VianaMallory Martin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Polyana Viana(10 fights)Mallory Martin(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +47.1|Blue -47.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Polyana VianaTargetMallory Martin

By target zone

0% acc

Head

33% acc · 20%

100% acc · 75%

Body

100% acc · 80%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

71% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Polyana Viana rounds

even

Mallory Martin rounds

Round 1Mallory Martin edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:18

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:25Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 16

Sig Strikes

5 / 7

25%

Sig Str %

71%

71 / 89

Total Strikes

14 / 19

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

2:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mallory Martin	5 / 7	14 / 19	1 / 1	0
1	Polyana Viana	4 / 16	71 / 89	0 / 0	5

Polyana Viana

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11

Mallory Martin

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights4