Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Iasmin Lucindo won · SUB R2

Elo1460

Elo1525

Polyana VianavsIasmin LucindoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, August 12, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Iasmin Lucindo won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:42

Model Prediction: Iasmin Lucindo wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Iasmin Lucindo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iasmin Lucindo at -198 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Polyana Viana enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Iasmin Lucindo has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Polyana Viana

Red Corner

Iasmin Lucindo

Blue Corner

+164

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-198

(66%)

1460

Elo

1525

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'3"

170.18 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Polyana VianaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · May 22

KOvs Jinh Yu Frey · Nov 22

KOvs Gillian Robertson · Jan 24

SUBvs Jaqueline Amorim · Apr 25

SUBvs Alice Ardelean · May 26

latest

Iasmin Lucindo

oldest →

vs Brogan Walker · Apr 23

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · May 24

vs Marina Rodriguez · Oct 24

vs Amanda Lemos · Mar 25

vs Angela Hill · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Polyana VianaMetricIasmin Lucindo

2.74

Strikes / min

3.22

2.50

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

53%

Strike defense

62%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

2.28

35%

Takedown defense

68%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.24evenly matched on net striking+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Polyana VianaIasmin Lucindo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Polyana Viana(10 fights)Iasmin Lucindo(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -64.6|Blue +64.6

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Polyana VianaTargetIasmin Lucindo

By target zone

13% acc · 20%

Head

28% acc · 50%

67% acc · 40%

Body

80% acc · 40%

100% acc · 40%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

40% acc · 100%

Distance

43% acc · 90%

Clinch

Ground

33% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Polyana Viana rounds

even

Iasmin Lucindo rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:58

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:21Control

Round 2Iasmin Lucindo edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 25

Sig Strikes

10 / 24

40%

Sig Str %

41.5%

41 / 68

Total Strikes

31 / 48

1 / 3

TDs

2 / 2

33%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:58

Ctrl Time

3:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Iasmin Lucindo	6 / 12	17 / 24	1 / 1	0
1	Polyana Viana	6 / 12	26 / 43	1 / 3	0
2	Iasmin Lucindo	4 / 12	14 / 24	1 / 1	1
2	Polyana Viana	4 / 13	15 / 25	0 / 0	0

Polyana Viana

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11

Iasmin Lucindo

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7