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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Polo Reyes won · Decision R3
Elo1491
Elo1358

Polo ReyesvsJason NovelliUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · Saturday, November 5, 2016Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Polo Reyes won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Polo Reyes wins(81.1%)

Actual result: Polo Reyes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Polo Reyes at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Polo Reyes is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Jason Novelli has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Jason Novelli has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Polo Reyes
Red Corner
VS
Jason Novelli
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
1491
Elo
1358
31
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Polo Reyes
oldest →
W
KOvs Cesar Arzamendia · Nov 15
W
KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Jun 16
L
KOvs James Vick · May 17
W
KOvs Matt Frevola · Jan 18
L
KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 19
latest
Jason Novelli
oldest →
L
KOvs David Teymur · Aug 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Polo ReyesMetricJason Novelli
—
Strikes / min
1.73
—
Strikes absorbed / min
3.55
—
Strike defense
66%
—
TDs / 15 min
0.70
—
Takedown defense
100%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1535 vs 1482Strikes72.5 vs 8.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs -1.0
Polo ReyesJason Novelli

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Polo Reyes(6 fights)Jason Novelli(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +133.1|Blue -133.1
Recent Form
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +63.0|Blue -63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Polo Reyes

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2

Jason Novelli

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights2