← All fights/Event page

Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Luana Carolina won · S-DEC

Elo1426

Elo1500

Poliana BotelhovsLuana CarolinaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · Saturday, May 1, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Luana Carolina won

S-DEC

Style matchupPoliana Botelho: Well-roundedvsLuana Carolina: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Luana Carolina wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Luana Carolina wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luana Carolina at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Poliana Botelho

Red Corner

Luana Carolina

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1426

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Poliana BotelhoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Syuri Kondo · May 18

SUBvs Cynthia Calvillo · Nov 18

vs Lauren Mueller · Apr 19

vs Gillian Robertson · Oct 20

SUBvs Karine Silva · Jun 22

latest

Luana Carolina

oldest →

vs Joanne Wood · Mar 23

vs Ivana Petrovic · Jul 23

KOvs Julija Stoliarenko · Feb 24

vs Lucie Pudilova · Jul 24

vs Michelle Montague · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Poliana BotelhoMetricLuana Carolina

2.90

Strikes / min

4.65

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

54%

Strike defense

51%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

0.30

76%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap+1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Poliana BotelhoLuana Carolina

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Poliana Botelho(7 fights)Luana Carolina(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -74.0|Blue +74.0

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Poliana BotelhoTargetLuana Carolina

By target zone

44% acc · 35%

Head

27% acc · 24%

64% acc · 41%

Body

76% acc · 52%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

86% acc · 24%

By position

50% acc · 65%

Distance

42% acc · 52%

86% acc · 18%

Clinch

85% acc · 44%

100% acc · 18%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Poliana Botelho rounds

even

Luana Carolina rounds

Round 1Poliana Botelho edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control2:22

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Luana Carolina edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control2:17

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:57Control

Round 3Luana Carolina edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 57

Sig Strikes

25 / 46

56.7%

Sig Str %

48.7%

87 / 112

Total Strikes

100 / 130

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:39

Ctrl Time

5:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luana Carolina	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0
1	Poliana Botelho	21 / 33	36 / 48	1 / 1
2	Luana Carolina	14 / 22	60 / 69	0 / 0
2	Poliana Botelho	8 / 12	35 / 39	0 / 2
3	Luana Carolina	9 / 18	38 / 55	0 / 0
3	Poliana Botelho	5 / 12	16 / 25	0 / 1

Poliana Botelho

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Luana Carolina

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights10