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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Magomed Mustafaev won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1356

Elo1492

Piotr HallmannvsMagomed MustafaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · Saturday, June 20, 2015Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Magomed Mustafaev won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:24

Style matchupPiotr Hallmann: WrestlervsMagomed Mustafaev: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Piotr Hallmann wins(68.3%)

Actual result: Magomed Mustafaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Piotr Hallmann at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Magomed Mustafaev is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Piotr Hallmann has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Piotr Hallmann threatens submissions; Magomed Mustafaev has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Piotr Hallmann has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Piotr Hallmann has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Piotr Hallmann

Red Corner

Magomed Mustafaev

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1356

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Piotr HallmannL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 13

vs Al Iaquinta · Oct 13

SUBvs Yves Edwards · Jun 14

vs Gleison Tibau · Sep 14

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Nov 15

latest

Magomed Mustafaev

oldest →

KOvs Joe Proctor · Dec 15

SUBvs Kevin Lee · Nov 16

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Apr 19

vs Brad Riddell · Feb 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Piotr HallmannMetricMagomed Mustafaev

3.98

Strikes / min

2.59

3.17

Strikes absorbed / min

2.68

58%

Strike defense

41%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

3.31

70%

Takedown defense

23%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Piotr HallmannMagomed Mustafaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Piotr Hallmann(6 fights)Magomed Mustafaev(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.5|Blue +136.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -47.6|Blue +47.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Piotr HallmannTargetMagomed Mustafaev

By target zone

50% acc · 55%

Head

37% acc · 72%

58% acc · 24%

Body

67% acc · 11%

86% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

58% acc · 48%

Distance

43% acc · 67%

47% acc · 31%

Clinch

46% acc · 33%

75% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Piotr Hallmann rounds

even

Magomed Mustafaev rounds

Round 1Piotr Hallmann edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control3:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 2Piotr Hallmann edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:48

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 51

Sig Strikes

18 / 41

56.5%

Sig Str %

43.5%

99 / 127

Total Strikes

23 / 47

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 3

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:48

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Magomed Mustafaev	11 / 21	14 / 25	0 / 3
1	Piotr Hallmann	16 / 26	66 / 79	1 / 1
2	Magomed Mustafaev	7 / 20	9 / 22	0 / 0
2	Piotr Hallmann	13 / 25	33 / 48	1 / 2

Piotr Hallmann

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Magomed Mustafaev

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5