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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Piera Rodriguez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1527

Elo1523

Piera RodriguezvsKetlen SouzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Saturday, August 2, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Piera Rodriguez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPiera Rodriguez: WrestlervsKetlen Souza: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Piera Rodriguez wins(78.4%)

Actual result: Piera Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Piera Rodriguez at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Piera Rodriguez has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Piera Rodriguez

Red Corner

Ketlen Souza

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1527

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Piera RodriguezW2 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Hughes · Oct 22

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Apr 23

vs Ariane Carnelossi · May 24

vs Josefine Knutsson · Dec 24

vs Sam Hughes · Mar 26

latest

Ketlen SouzaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marnic Mann · Apr 24

SUBvs Yazmin Jauregui · Sep 24

vs Angela Hill · Feb 25

vs Bruna Brasil · Feb 26

KOvs Ariane Carnelossi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Piera RodriguezMetricKetlen Souza

4.04

Strikes / min

4.01

3.13

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

53%

Strike defense

52%

4.04

TDs / 15 min

0.46

81%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Piera RodriguezKetlen Souza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Piera Rodriguez(7 fights)Ketlen Souza(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.6|Blue -3.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Piera RodriguezTargetKetlen Souza

By target zone

30% acc · 44%

Head

40% acc · 52%

62% acc · 36%

Body

77% acc · 18%

62% acc · 20%

Leg

94% acc · 30%

By position

38% acc · 75%

Distance

52% acc · 86%

67% acc · 25%

Clinch

73% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Piera Rodriguez rounds

even

Ketlen Souza rounds

Round 1Piera Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control1:37

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Piera Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns3

Control1:28

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:23Control

Round 3Piera Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control1:31

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 150

Sig Strikes

56 / 103

43%

Sig Str %

54.7%

81 / 171

Total Strikes

86 / 139

7 / 10

TDs

0 / 3

75.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:36

Ctrl Time

1:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ketlen Souza	19 / 32	25 / 38	0 / 0
1	Piera Rodriguez	21 / 55	23 / 58	2 / 3
2	Ketlen Souza	16 / 28	28 / 46	0 / 1
2	Piera Rodriguez	22 / 42	31 / 52	3 / 5
3	Ketlen Souza	21 / 43	33 / 55	0 / 2
3	Piera Rodriguez	21 / 53	27 / 61	2 / 2

Piera Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights7

Ketlen Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights7