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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tanner Boser won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1511
Elo1484
Tanner Boser

Philipe LinsvsTanner BoserUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · Saturday, June 27, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tanner Boser won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:41

Style matchupPhilipe Lins: Well-roundedvsTanner Boser: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Tanner Boser wins(74.7%)

Actual result: Tanner Boser wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tanner Boser at -112 American odds

+$89 profit

$189 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Philipe Lins enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Tanner Boser is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Philipe Lins has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Tanner Boser has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Philipe Lins has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Philipe Lins
Red Corner
VS
Tanner Boser
Blue Corner
-112
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-112
(53%)
1511
Elo
1484
40
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
198.12 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Philipe LinsW4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · May 20
W
vs Marcin Prachnio · Apr 22
W
KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Feb 23
W
vs Maxim Grishin · Jun 23
W
vs Ion Cutelaba · Mar 24
latest
Tanner Boser
oldest →
W
KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Jun 21
L
vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Sep 22
L
KOvs Ion Cutelaba · Apr 23
W
vs Aleksa Camur · Aug 23
L
KOvs Gokhan Saricam · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Philipe LinsMetricTanner Boser
3.80
Strikes / min
4.82
3.59
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
46%
Strike defense
57%
1.65
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
69%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.21Δ 1.61 — meaningful gap+1.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1486 vs 1500Strikes2.7 vs 4.2Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -0.1
Philipe LinsTanner Boser

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Philipe Lins(6 fights)Tanner Boser(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +26.9|Blue -26.9
Recent Form
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -144.0|Blue +144.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Philipe LinsTargetTanner Boser

By target zone

3
33% acc · 50%
Head
6
50% acc · 40%
3
38% acc · 50%
Body
2
100% acc · 13%
0
Leg
7
88% acc · 47%

By position

6
35% acc · 100%
Distance
14
67% acc · 93%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Philipe Lins rounds
0
even
1
Tanner Boser rounds
Round 1Tanner Boser edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
6 / 17
Sig Strikes
15 / 22
35%
Sig Str %
68%
6 / 17
Total Strikes
15 / 22
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tanner Boser15 / 2215 / 220 / 00
1Philipe Lins6 / 176 / 170 / 00

Philipe Lins

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights6

Tanner Boser

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10