Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Philipe Lins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1496

Philipe LinsvsMaxim GrishinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Saturday, June 3, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Philipe Lins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPhilipe Lins: Well-roundedvsMaxim Grishin: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Philipe Lins wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Philipe Lins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Philipe Lins at +104 American odds

+$104 profit

$204 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Philipe Lins enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Maxim Grishin is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Philipe Lins has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Maxim Grishin has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Philipe Lins has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Philipe Lins

Red Corner

Maxim Grishin

Blue Corner

+104

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-122

(55%)

1511

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Philipe LinsW3 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · May 20

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 20

vs Marcin Prachnio · Apr 22

KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Feb 23

vs Ion Cutelaba · Mar 24

latest

Maxim Grishin

oldest →

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 20

KOvs Gadzhimurad Antigulov · Oct 20

vs Dustin Jacoby · Feb 21

vs William Knight · Feb 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Philipe LinsMetricMaxim Grishin

3.80

Strikes / min

3.26

3.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.27

46%

Strike defense

58%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.21

100%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21evenly matched on net striking+0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Philipe LinsMaxim Grishin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Philipe Lins(6 fights)Maxim Grishin(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.1|Blue -15.1

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -371.0|Blue +371.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Philipe LinsTargetMaxim Grishin

By target zone

30% acc · 49%

Head

38% acc · 49%

81% acc · 38%

Body

55% acc · 15%

55% acc · 13%

Leg

94% acc · 37%

By position

39% acc · 80%

Distance

45% acc · 71%

64% acc · 20%

Clinch

80% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Philipe Lins rounds

even

Maxim Grishin rounds

Round 1Philipe Lins edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control2:02

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Philipe Lins edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:40

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Philipe Lins edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control3:42

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 106

Sig Strikes

41 / 80

42.3%

Sig Str %

51%

50 / 113

Total Strikes

103 / 145

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 3

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:24

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Maxim Grishin	16 / 29	27 / 40	0 / 1
1	Philipe Lins	17 / 42	21 / 46	0 / 0
2	Maxim Grishin	14 / 30	36 / 53	0 / 0
2	Philipe Lins	12 / 33	12 / 35	1 / 2
3	Maxim Grishin	11 / 21	40 / 52	0 / 2
3	Philipe Lins	16 / 31	17 / 32	0 / 1

Philipe Lins

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6

Maxim Grishin

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5