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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Todd Duffee won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1352
Elo1490
Todd Duffee

Philip De FriesvsTodd DuffeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · Saturday, December 29, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Todd Duffee won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:04

Style matchupPhilip De Fries: WrestlervsTodd Duffee: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Philip De Fries wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Todd Duffee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Philip De Fries at +315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Todd Duffee is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Philip De Fries has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Todd Duffee has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Philip De Fries
Red Corner
VS
Todd Duffee
Blue Corner
+315
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-345
(78%)
1352
Elo
1490
40
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Philip De Fries
oldest →
W
vs Rob Broughton · Nov 11
L
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Feb 12
W
SUBvs Oli Thompson · Aug 12
L
KOvs Matt Mitrione · Apr 13
latest
Todd Duffee
oldest →
L
KOvs Mike Russow · May 10
W
KOvs Anthony Hamilton · Dec 14
L
KOvs Frank Mir · Jul 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Philip De FriesMetricTodd Duffee
2.30
Strikes / min
5.93
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
37%
Strike defense
56%
3.29
TDs / 15 min
0.72
100%
Takedown defense
90%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.70Δ 3.76 — meaningful gap+3.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1513 vs 1487Strikes18.7 vs 27.5Takedowns1.7 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.00Form0.4 vs -1.0
Philip De FriesTodd Duffee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Philip De Fries(5 fights)Todd Duffee(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.3|Blue +138.3
Recent Form
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -798.0|Blue +798.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Philip De FriesTargetTodd Duffee

By target zone

7
58% acc · 100%
Head
14
58% acc · 70%
0
0% acc
Body
5
83% acc · 25%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 5%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
13
62% acc · 65%
7
88% acc · 100%
Clinch
7
70% acc · 35%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Philip De Fries rounds
0
even
1
Todd Duffee rounds
Round 1Todd Duffee edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control0:55
Knockdowns0
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
7 / 13
Sig Strikes
20 / 31
53%
Sig Str %
64%
12 / 18
Total Strikes
22 / 33
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:55
Ctrl Time
0:34

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Todd Duffee20 / 3122 / 330 / 00
1Philip De Fries7 / 1312 / 181 / 10

Philip De Fries

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights5

Todd Duffee

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights4