Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Philip De Fries won · SUB R2

Elo1352

Philip De FriesvsOli ThompsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · Saturday, August 4, 2012Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Philip De Fries won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:16

Model Prediction: Oli Thompson wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Philip De Fries wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Oli Thompson at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Philip De Fries enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Philip De Fries threatens submissions; Oli Thompson has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Philip De Fries has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Philip De Fries has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Philip De Fries

Red Corner

Oli Thompson

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1352

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Philip De FriesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Broughton · Nov 11

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Feb 12

KOvs Todd Duffee · Dec 12

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Apr 13

latest

Oli Thompson

oldest →

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Philip De FriesMetricOli Thompson

2.30

Strikes / min

1.66

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

5.31

37%

Strike defense

46%

3.29

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

50%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70Δ 2.95 — meaningful gap-3.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Philip De FriesOli Thompson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Philip De Fries(5 fights)Oli Thompson(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +16.0|Blue -16.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Philip De FriesTargetOli Thompson

By target zone

41% acc · 83%

Head

24% acc · 22%

83% acc · 14%

Body

85% acc · 61%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

60% acc · 17%

By position

31% acc · 43%

Distance

35% acc · 44%

76% acc · 37%

Clinch

83% acc · 56%

58% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Philip De Fries rounds

even

Oli Thompson rounds

Round 1Philip De Fries edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:53

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 2Philip De Fries edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control3:13

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 77

Sig Strikes

18 / 35

44.5%

Sig Str %

50%

55 / 109

Total Strikes

29 / 47

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 3

37.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:06

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Oli Thompson	12 / 19	20 / 28	0 / 3	0
1	Philip De Fries	11 / 26	16 / 32	1 / 4	0
2	Oli Thompson	6 / 16	9 / 19	0 / 0	0
2	Philip De Fries	24 / 51	39 / 77	1 / 2	1

Philip De Fries

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5

Oli Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2