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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani won · S-DEC R3
Elo1484
Elo1544
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani editorial illustration

Phil RowevsJean-Paul LebosnoyaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Saturday, February 21, 2026Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPhil Rowe: StrikervsJean-Paul Lebosnoyani: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins(76.0%)

Actual result: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Phil Rowe has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (52.9%).
  • Phil Rowe has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Rowe
Red Corner
VS
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Blue Corner
+172
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-205
(67%)
1484
Elo
1544
36
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'3"
Height
5'11"
203.2 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil Rowe
oldest →
W
KOvs Niko Price · Dec 22
L
vs Neil Magny · Jun 23
L
vs Jake Matthews · Jun 24
W
KOvs Ange Loosa · Jun 25
L
vs Seokhyeon Ko · Nov 25
latest
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
oldest →
W
DECvs Seokhyeon Ko · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil RoweMetricJean-Paul Lebosnoyani
3.51
Strikes / min
4.77
4.15
Strikes absorbed / min
3.72
50%
Strike defense
53%
0.46
TDs / 15 min
2.79
53%
Takedown defense
0%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.64Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1521 vs 1500Strikes3.5 vs 4.8Takedowns0.5 vs 2.8Sub Atts0.20 vs 1.90Form-0.3 vs 0.0
Phil RoweJean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701493151515381560← oldermost recent →
Phil Rowe(8 fights)Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -60.1|Blue +60.1
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil RoweTargetJean-Paul Lebosnoyani

By target zone

42
45% acc · 78%
Head
40
52% acc · 61%
3
50% acc · 6%
Body
10
59% acc · 15%
9
82% acc · 17%
Leg
16
94% acc · 24%

By position

50
47% acc · 93%
Distance
47
54% acc · 71%
4
100% acc · 7%
Clinch
6
60% acc · 9%
0
Ground
13
93% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Phil Rowe rounds
0
even
2
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani rounds
Round 1Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:07
32Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:46Control
Round 2Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:03
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:49Control
Round 3Phil Rowe edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:05
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:42Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
54 / 111
Sig Strikes
66 / 111
49.3%
Sig Str %
59.7%
59 / 117
Total Strikes
84 / 136
0 / 0
TDs
3 / 9
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:15
Ctrl Time
5:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani32 / 3843 / 531 / 40
1Phil Rowe14 / 2615 / 270 / 00
2Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani19 / 3226 / 421 / 40
2Phil Rowe16 / 3120 / 360 / 00
3Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani15 / 4115 / 411 / 12
3Phil Rowe24 / 5424 / 540 / 00

Phil Rowe

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights8

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights2