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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Matthews won · U-DEC R3

Elo1484

Elo1522

Phil RowevsJake MatthewsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Saturday, June 1, 2024Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPhil Rowe: StrikervsJake Matthews: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Phil Rowe wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Matthews has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Phil Rowe has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Rowe

Red Corner

Jake Matthews

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1484

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

203.2 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil RoweL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Niko Price · Dec 22

vs Neil Magny · Jun 23

KOvs Ange Loosa · Jun 25

vs Seokhyeon Ko · Nov 25

vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani · Feb 26

latest

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Michael Morales · Nov 23

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil RoweMetricJake Matthews

3.51

Strikes / min

3.34

4.15

Strikes absorbed / min

2.62

50%

Strike defense

60%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

1.44

53%

Takedown defense

64%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.64Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Phil RoweJake Matthews

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Phil Rowe(8 fights)Jake Matthews(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -38.6|Blue +38.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil RoweTargetJake Matthews

By target zone

29% acc · 79%

Head

29% acc · 55%

33% acc · 3%

Body

67% acc · 27%

67% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

31% acc · 94%

Distance

39% acc · 91%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Phil Rowe rounds

even

Jake Matthews rounds

Round 1Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control1:50

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 104

Sig Strikes

66 / 164

32.7%

Sig Str %

36.3%

40 / 111

Total Strikes

89 / 188

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:50

Ctrl Time

3:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Matthews	30 / 73	35 / 78	0 / 0
1	Phil Rowe	18 / 46	18 / 46	0 / 0
2	Jake Matthews	34 / 84	34 / 84	0 / 0
2	Phil Rowe	14 / 52	14 / 52	0 / 0
3	Jake Matthews	2 / 7	20 / 26	1 / 1
3	Phil Rowe	2 / 6	8 / 13	0 / 1

Phil Rowe

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25