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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Roman Dolidze won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Phil Hawes
Elo1497
Roman Dolidze editorial illustration

Phil HawesvsRoman DolidzeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Saturday, October 29, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Roman Dolidze won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:09

Model Prediction: Phil Hawes wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Roman Dolidze wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Hawes at -180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Roman Dolidze is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Phil Hawes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Phil Hawes has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Hawes
Red Corner
VS
Roman Dolidze
Blue Corner
-180
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1490
Elo
1497
37
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil HawesL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Kyle Daukaus · May 21
L
KOvs Chris Curtis · Nov 21
W
KOvs Deron Winn · Jun 22
L
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · May 23
L
KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jan 24
latest
Roman DolidzeL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Anthony Smith · Jun 24
W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Oct 24
W
vs Marvin Vettori · Mar 25
L
SUBvs Anthony Hernandez · Aug 25
L
vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil HawesMetricRoman Dolidze
5.33
Strikes / min
3.19
3.72
Strikes absorbed / min
3.71
55%
Strike defense
48%
2.11
TDs / 15 min
1.16
90%
Takedown defense
32%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.61Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1547Strikes5.3 vs 3.1Takedowns2.1 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.20 vs 1.10Form0.5 vs 0.7
Phil HawesRoman Dolidze

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Phil Hawes(7 fights)Roman Dolidze(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil HawesTargetRoman Dolidze

By target zone

5
33% acc · 45%
Head
15
39% acc · 83%
5
56% acc · 45%
Body
2
67% acc · 11%
1
50% acc · 9%
Leg
1
100% acc · 6%

By position

11
42% acc · 100%
Distance
14
39% acc · 78%
0
Clinch
2
50% acc · 11%
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Phil Hawes rounds
0
even
1
Roman Dolidze rounds
Round 1Roman Dolidze edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:46
Knockdowns0
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
11 / 26
Sig Strikes
18 / 42
42%
Sig Str %
42%
15 / 31
Total Strikes
29 / 57
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:46
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Roman Dolidze18 / 4229 / 570 / 01
1Phil Hawes11 / 2615 / 311 / 10

Phil Hawes

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights7

Roman Dolidze

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights14