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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Phil Hawes won · M-DEC

Elo1490

Elo1541

Phil HawesvsNassourdine ImavovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Saturday, February 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Phil Hawes won

M-DEC

Style matchupPhil Hawes: WrestlervsNassourdine Imavov: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nassourdine Imavov wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Phil Hawes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nassourdine Imavov at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Phil Hawes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nassourdine Imavov enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Hawes

Red Corner

Nassourdine Imavov

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1490

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil HawesL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Curtis · Nov 21

KOvs Deron Winn · Jun 22

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Oct 22

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · May 23

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jan 24

latest

Nassourdine ImavovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Roman Dolidze · Feb 24

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Jun 24

vs Brendan Allen · Sep 24

KOvs Israel Adesanya · Feb 25

vs Caio Borralho · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil HawesMetricNassourdine Imavov

5.33

Strikes / min

4.28

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

55%

Strike defense

58%

2.11

TDs / 15 min

0.74

90%

Takedown defense

81%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.61evenly matched on net striking+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Phil HawesNassourdine Imavov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Phil Hawes(7 fights)Nassourdine Imavov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -50.3|Blue +50.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil HawesTargetNassourdine Imavov

By target zone

42% acc · 42%

Head

55% acc · 68%

78% acc · 23%

Body

82% acc · 25%

79% acc · 35%

Leg

80% acc · 7%

By position

55% acc · 74%

Distance

47% acc · 51%

64% acc · 23%

Clinch

90% acc · 47%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Phil Hawes rounds

even

Nassourdine Imavov rounds

Round 1Phil Hawes edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control3:38

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:15

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Nassourdine Imavov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control3:13

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 54

Sig Strikes

57 / 93

55.7%

Sig Str %

58.7%

101 / 128

Total Strikes

87 / 124

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:06

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nassourdine Imavov	9 / 19	20 / 30	0 / 0
1	Phil Hawes	16 / 24	41 / 50	2 / 2
2	Nassourdine Imavov	16 / 25	30 / 40	0 / 0
2	Phil Hawes	6 / 11	36 / 44	1 / 4
3	Nassourdine Imavov	32 / 49	37 / 54	0 / 0
3	Phil Hawes	9 / 19	24 / 34	1 / 1

Phil Hawes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Nassourdine Imavov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11